Safe Trading Blog

Our past analysis of december 2007:
http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2007/12/silver.html
Keep on…

Our past analysis of december 2007:
http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2007/12/microsoft.html
The plan is going well even in a very nasty context!
SAFE TRADING.

Our past analysis of december 2007:
http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2007/12/wall-mart.html
Fine! SAFE TRADING.

Our past analysis of december 2007:
http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2007/12/mattel_19.html
Good buy @ 17$! SAFE TRADING

Our past analysis of december 2007:

http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2007/12/google_14.html

CONFIRMED! SAFE TRADING

Our past analysis of december 2007:

http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2007/12/hpq_19.html

CONFIRMED! SAFE TRADING…

David Ricardo made a fortune buying bonds from the British government four days in advance of the Battle of Waterloo. He was not a military analyst, and even if he were, he had no basis to compute the odds of Napoleon’s defeat or victory, or hard-to-identify ambiguous outcomes. Thus, he was investing in the unknown and the unknowable. Still, he knew that competition was thin, that the seller was eager, and that his windfall pounds should Napoleon lose would be worth much more than the pounds he’d lose should Napoleon win. Ricardo knew a good bet when he saw it.
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David Ricardo 18/04/1772-11/09/1823 : political & economist… A book which can still be read today!! http://www.econlib.org/library/Ricardo/ricP.html PREFACE : The produce of the earth—all that is derived from its surface by the united application of labour, machinery, and capital, is divided among three classes of the community; namely, the proprietor of the land, the owner of the stock or capital necessary for its cultivation, and the labourers by whose industry it is cultivated… To determine the laws which regulate this distribution, is the principal problem in Political Economy: much as the science has been improved by the writings of Turgot, Stuart, Smith, Say, Sismondi, and others, they afford very little satisfactory information respecting the natural course of rent, profit, and wages. In 1815, Mr. Malthus, in his “Inquiry into the Nature and Progress of Rent,” and a Fellow of University College, Oxford, in his “Essay on the Application of Capital to Land,” presented to the world, nearly at the same moment, the true doctrine of rent; without a knowledge of which, it is impossible to understand the effect of the progress of wealth on profits and wages, or to trace satisfactorily the influence of taxation on different classes of the community; particularly when the commodities taxed are the productions immediately derived from the surface of the earth. Adam Smith, and the other able writers to whom I have alluded, not having viewed correctly the principles of rent, have, it appears to me, overlooked many important truths, which can only be discovered after the subject of rent is thoroughly understood… Author: Ricardo, David (1772-1823) Title: On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation Published: London: John Murray, 1821. Third edition. First published: 1817.

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Our foreground analysis of december is taking place:

http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2007/12/cac40-next-year.html

http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2008/01/cac40-weekly.html

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We have then done some small profits on our favorite value AXA and larger profits when building a short term portfolio:

http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2008/01/cac40_2685.html.

The situation is so uncertain that we always react fast, with low exposure.

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Recently, we have re-built a new portfolio but get out with no pain in a very negative context:

http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2008/01/portfolio_16.html.

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As written in this last post: we keep in mind that the reaction have to be launched fast && we intend come back (fast?) on the market when emotion will not be the guide for traders (maybe next week depending on the rate cut).

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It is the only way for us to apply a method with rational thinking and planning && this is the most important: think, protect your money, do not take too much risk: what we call SAFE TRADING. It is essential in the present environment…

Some buys this morning with a CAC40 around 5180 pts. News flow too negative: we get out @ 5250 pts with a global loss of 0.04%! (SAFE TRADING)… We will certainly come back later on the market when emotion will not be the guide for traders. It is the only way for us to apply a method with rational thinking and planning.

http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2008/01/cac40-weekly.html

We are @ the key point of the analysis above (from the 1/01/08): CAC40 close to 5300 pts… Let observe the market here. If this support breaks, we will buy (again) below around 5150 pts. For the moment, we do not do any arbitrage in our portfolio (15% AXA && 15% AF/DBG/ML/SU && 70% cash): then, we have the opportunity to enter @ lower levels (as mentioned in previous posts). We still have a positive ROI on AXA && AF and negative on the other values, with a global neutral performance.