Safe Trading Blog

http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2008/01/cac40_11.html

Portfolio +2% today… Our anticipations confirmed. Let see how the US can recover? (C,ML,JPM results this week)

http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2008/01/cac40-weekly.html

==> Since the beginning of the year, I have a scenario with a CAC moving to 5300 pts (with low extensions @ 5000 pts). I expect some issues triggering a move back up @ these levels… Also, nothing prevent from a reversal before these key points. That’s the reason why I start building some lines in a portfolio, with DBG/AXA (yesterday) and AF, MICHELIN, SCHNEIDER (this morning) with a CAC40 around 5350 pts. If we go lower I have forseen 3 entries on each line. The best time for the reversal (up) will come when all expert opinions will be so desperate that everybody will predict the worst… Of course, if the news flow tend to be too negative, we will manage an exit with no pain: SAFE TRADING. Let see.

Positive for a move -> 5500/5530 pts (from 5400 pts)
== our first scenario
=> Buy Turbo CALL CAC40 (out stop win zero)+ AXA (3 times)+ DBG…

Target~4/4.1e: speculative buy @ this level…

Plan and targets

** We have played the today up move on “active” stocks
** Profits booked
** On CAC40, we have a target @ 5530/5550 pts (up)
** before a large correction… (==>5100 pts)

** starting @ the end of the week.
** Other scenario:
** the large correction starts from today high (5520 pts)
** now @ WS: DJIA: -1.8% ; NASDAQ: -2.4%

***

NOTE:

**

After the big down move towards 5100/5200 pts on CAC40, we expect a reaction @ these levels that we intend to play (up move) (triggered by financial institutions?)… This would be the step 2 of our strategy.

**

Then, after this step 2, there could be a new big down move again (to lower levels)…

**

This is the strategy, let wait for tactical issues & validation of each step progressively…

**

Of course, we follow closely the news flow to change/adapt issues…

CAC40 @ 5516 pts:
Book profits on VINCI @ +5% (45e) ==> Gain = +2e / share…
Book profits on BOUYGUES @ 54.5 ==> Gain = 1.5e / share…
Book profits on EADS (19.57e) & SOITEC (6.8e), take a small loss on LG (115e)…

My trading plan: CAC40 can reach a max around 5530 pts & then big down to 5200/5100 pts.

http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2008/01/cac40.html

Good anticipation: BOUYGUES +4%, VINCI + 4%, EADS +1.9% : wee keep all positions till 5530/5550 pts on CAC40 (to be re-analysed later). We add SOITEC to our buy positions (@ 6.64e)…

Short Term (few days) positions (high risk):
Buy VINCI/EADS/BOUYGUES/LAFARGE (on the today lows)

Buyer @ 26e with a stop @ 25.6e (for a few days)

Hourly scale: