Market mood
As developed in the previous posts, our confidence is improving on the market for the short term, even if it needs to be confirmed.
A key element is the situation on the mortgage business: the credit risk default has decreased the 2 last weeks by 25%. It means that things are evolving in the good direction: […]
Another possible strategy on the US
Yesterday, we were discussing of stocks held by hedge funds =>
“…stocks most widely held by hedge funds are underperforming in easing FED cycles and gloomy economic periods! Indeed, these funds have to reduce exposure and decrease their leverage on their stock baskets => in general, these stocks are decreasing faster that the rest of the […]
Trade follow up
our 2 buys of yesterday:
SAN: already +2% this morning vs our buy level
& CA: at our buy level…
addthis_url = ‘http%3A%2F%2Fwww.safetradingblog.com%2Fstock-code-trading%2Ftrade-follow-up.html’;
addthis_title = ‘Trade+follow+up’;
addthis_pub = ”;
SPX & 10Y yield (last 6M)
SPX and 10Y yield for the last 6 months: The correlation is perfect. It is quite natural but not always with such a high correlation degree.
You can check the 2 last rebounds of about 1M each… On this picture, the odds are again in favor of a continuation of the upside as long as TNX […]
SPX below the key level
Reminder of our trading scenario:
“The short term rebound develops chaotic waves: SPX have moved back below the 1350 pts target… as well as financials have been stopped at resistance level (JPM is a good example). My odds are still positive & I expect a break of these resistances, but we need confirmation today. If yes, the […]
For agressive traders
Let’s start from the observation that stocks most widely held by hedge funds are underperforming in easing FED cycles and gloomy economic periods! Indeed, these funds have to reduce exposure and decrease their leverage on their stock baskets => in general, these stocks are decreasing faster that the rest of the market… plain & simple.
However, […]
Rolling the plan
See previous posts today: We have a positive bais concerning a continuation of the rebound… Worth playing the upside in case of validation of the break out of the 1350 pts level on the SPX!
We follow this plan with the idea also that consumer staples & health care are outperforming within uncertain periods: Ready to […]
US market summary last 6M
A picture is always better than 1000 words: below, the chart of the yield curve (10Y yield divided by 2Y yield) versus the S&P500 == SPX (first plot)… Plain & simple: FED easing, short term interest rates drop faster than long term ones => gloomy economy => weak stock market and fly to bonds: second […]
Sentiment indicators
Looking at short interests on SP500 is always of great interest: the total short interest of all stocks (on SP500) is about 10% (in per cent of the total float of those stocks)… ok, it was 7% at the beginning of the month!
This measure is certainly more complicated to track but also more relevant than the […]
Asset allocation
The short term rebound develops chaotic waves: SPX have moved back below the 1350 pts target… as well as financials have been stopped at resistance level (JPM is a good example). My odds are still positive & I expect a break of these resistances, but we need confirmation today. If yes, the rebound would find a […]
keep looking »