Archive for the ‘Forex’ Category

Forecasts?

Friday, December 7th, 2007

Let’s start with some common false beliefs about any financial markets; it does not matter whether it concerns bonds, equities, earnings or any other financial product. Do we have to believe experts, as fund managers or financial institutes, when they provide forecasts with a great level of confidence? The conclusion of M.R. Geer (1999) is quite clear: “On the first business day of each year, the Wall Street Journal surveys the top macroeconomic forecasters in the in order to ascertain their predictions for the economy in the forthcoming year… The findings in this study thus indicate that the forecasts issued by the nation’s premier economic forecasters are no better than random walk or flipping a coin forecasts.” In fact, an enormous amount of evidence suggests that we simply can not forecast any financial market trend. For example, it is quite funny to know that around 75% of fund managers think that they are above the average at their jobs! It is an ancient lesson from Lao Tzu (6th century BC): “Those who have the knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have the knowledge”. Of course, on the very long run, as the economy is growing, it must reflect in earnings and then on main financial indices, but you have to keep in mind that it only holds for the very long run. In a report from the Federal reserve bank of Kansas City, Shen (2005) has concluded that “over the years, for investors who have held their portfolios for shorter periods (than 25 years), both stocks and bonds were exposed to substantial risks, and stocks does not necessarily outperform governments bonds.” Then, long term means at least 25 years. On shorter time scale, since a stock represents a ‘small piece’ of a company, the stock price should somehow reflect the overall value (net worth) of this company. However, the present value of a firm depends not only on the firm’s current situation but also on its future performance. Thus, one sees already the basic problem in pricing risky financial assets: we are trying to predict the future on the basis of present information. Thus, if any new information is revealed that might in one way or another affect the company’s future performance, then the stock price will vary accordingly. It should therefore be clear from this simple discussion that the future price of a stock will always be subjected to a large degree of uncertainty.

We can not forecast but can we provide anything quantitative on a financial market? Financial markets are systems in which a large number of traders interact with one another and react to external information in order to determine the price for a given item, equity, currency, bond or any other products. Some markets are localized in specific cities while others are delocalized and accessible all over the world. These last ones are of interest for us: they are characterised by time series of evolution of price, volume, and number of transactions of a financial product. When one inspects these time series, it is obvious to recognize that the time evolution is unpredictable. Price of a financial product is essentially indistinguishable from a stochastic process. Already, we understand more accurately why any forecast is a myth but we have also given a precise description a financial market in terms of elements of a complex system with a time history. We have made a decisive progress as we know that we can not forecast financial stochastic time series but we can build a well define knowledge of financial markets, under simple and powerful ideas.

Efficient Market Hypothesis

Friday, December 7th, 2007

“I’d be bum in the street with a tin cup if the markets were efficient” (W. Buffet). In practice, all traders and external news result collectively into large fluctuations of any price of a financial product. It follows that any predictability pattern is neither detectable nor exploitable. This is basically what is called the “Efficient Market Hypothesis” (EMH) that Buffet contests: for him markets are not efficient, arbitrage opportunities exist and it’s possible to make money out of them! Of course, we have to consider any proposition by Buffet with the highest level of attention. Markets are complex systems that incorporate information about a given asset in the time series of its price. The EMH was originally formulated in 1965 by Samuelson. A market is said to be efficient if all the available information is instantly processed when it reaches the market and it is immediately reflected in a new value of prices of the assets traded. The conclusion of this ‘weak form’ of the efficient market hypothesis is then that price changes are unpredictable from the historical time series of those changes.

In 1970, E.Fama developed the first ideas on Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and made a distinction between three forms of EMH: (a) the weak form (of Samuelson), (b) the semi-strong form and (c) the strong form. The strong form suggests that securities prices reflect all available information, even private information. Seyhun (1986, 1998) provides sufficient evidence that insiders profit from trading on information not already incorporated into prices. Hence the strong form does not hold in a world with an uneven playing field. The semi-strong form of EMH asserts that security prices reflect all publicly available information. There are no undervalued or overvalued securities and thus, trading rules are incapable of producing superior returns. When new information is released, it is fully incorporated into the price rather speedily. Again, no arbitrage opportunity exists. What next? Certainly, the weak and semi-strong forms of the EMH are not fully correct and Buffet is right. Then, one can start from EMH and incorporate deviations from rational expectations in the behaviour of agents in an attempt to explain anomalies of financial markets. It raises the question of finding arbitrage opportunities! In addition, it is not so obvious that even if an arbitrage is present, we could exploit it. Since the 1960s, a great number of empirical investigations have been devoted to testing the limits of the EMH, which has been put on trial and subjected to a constant critical re-examination.

FOREX

Friday, December 7th, 2007

Forex is the nickname for the Foreign Exchange Market. In the United States, there are several branches of the stock market, each with their own name. For instance, some stocks trade on the Dow Jones, others on NASDAQ. Of course, all stock market transactions in the United States take place on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). In other countries the same is true. There may be one or more distinct markets. However, international trade takes place on the market termed the Foreign Exchange Market, or Forex. Several countries across the world in almost every time zone participate in trade on Forex, with multiple currencies being utilized and stocks and commodities from all participating countries being offered for trade. Because there are so many nations and time zones involved, Forex does not function as a “business day” entity like most domestic stock markets. It remains open for trade 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. Of course, these additional hours increase the risk factor intensely for those of us who are human and obviously cannot monitor our investments 24 hours a day. This means that the value of your holdings could potentially plummet overnight, while you sleep, because other countries are still trading while you are in a dream world. Forex Functionality While the functionality of Forex is the same as a domestic stock exchange, the commodities and prices are more volatile, and there are additional factors to take into considerations besides the typical risks associated with a domestic market. You will have to contend with not only the value of your stocks and your currency, but also the foreign currencies involved in any trades or exchanges on Forex, as well as the inconsistencies of values of particular goods and services across international borders. The History of Forex When foreign trade began, it was not an international trade market. It was born out of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944, which set forth that foreign currencies would be fixed against the dollar, which was valued at $35 per ounce of gold. This precedent was first put into practice in 1967, when a bank in Chicago refused to fund a loan to a professor in sterling pound. Of course, his intention was to sell the currency, which he felt was priced too high against the dollar, then buy it back later when the value had declined, turning a quick profit. After 1971, when the dollar was no longer convertible to gold and the domestic market was stronger, the Bretton Woods agreement was abandoned, and the currency conversion process became more variable. This allowed for a stronger backing in the foreign markets, and the United States and Europe began a strong trade relationship. In the 1980s, the market hours and usage was extended through the use of computers and technology to include the Asian time zones as well. At this time, foreign exchange equaled about $70 billion a day. Today, about twenty years later, the trade level has skyrocketed, with trade equaling close to $1.5 trillion daily. Originally, trading across international lines was more difficult, with several different currencies involved across Europe. Though the major players in the European market were deeply involved in and veterans of international trade by the time other markets joined in, there were more currencies to keep track of – the franc, the pound, the lira, and many more – than was reasonable. With the birth of the European Union in 1992, the wheels were set in motion to create a single currency that would be used across most of Europe, and the Euro was finally established and put into circulation in 1999. Forex Today While some countries have still not accepted the currency as their own (such as Britain, who still uses the sterling pound), the process of currency conversion has been simplified without the large number of various currencies that were previously dealt with. Instead of dozens of currencies, the main countries trade in five – U.S. dollars, Australian dollars, British pounds sterling, the Euro, and the Japanese Yen. Today, the Foreign Exchange Market is international and worldwide. The market is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week, to accommodate all of the time zones for all of the major players. These now include most of Europe, the United States, and Asian markets, especially Japan. Even Australia has joined the international trading markets, and since such nations are halfway around the world from some of the other top players, time zones obviously must be taken into consideration. Another completely separate but perhaps more important concern with trading in Forex understands how trade works in multiple currencies. How can you compare the value of a stock across international lines if the values are expressed in two separate, non-equivalent currencies? And how do you measure gains and losses when conversion rate is constantly changing? Understanding Currency Conversion If you begin trading on Forex, you have to learn how to convert currencies and note the difference in values, as well as how currencies are exchanged between international lines. This means studying not only domestic market trends and currency values, but also those of foreign markets. Since Forex is the Foreign Exchange Market, you obviously cannot expect everyone within the market to trade in U.S. dollars (and why not, you might ask? – but remember that not everyone covets the U.S. dollar). With so many variables and volatile currencies being exchanged, how can you know a good buy or sell when you see one without complete awareness of the value of foreign currency? The first step is to find a source that will give you a basic idea of the current exchange rate between your domestic currency and the foreign currency in question. You should do this as a base listing for any currency that with which you might become involved. Of course, this will not be consistent down to the cent or fraction of a particular currency throughout an entire business day, but at least you will have your starting point from which to begin, almost like North on a compass. Such sources can be found all over the Internet, as well as through many brokers, both on line and in person. Currency Expression It is also good to understand the means by which the currency conversion is expressed. The comparison is usually made in a ratio known as the cross-rate. In this configuration, the two currencies are listed in an XXX/YYY ratio, with the XXX position referred to as the base currency. The base currency is usually expressed as a whole number, while the YYY position is expressed as the decimal that most closely matches the based currency rate. It is sort of like making reference to miles per gallon or rotations per minute on a car – a direct comparison of one to the other in the form of a ratio. The smallest fraction, or decimal, in which a currency can be traded, is called a pip and this is usually the degree to which a cross-rate is expressed. For example, if the British pound sterling can be traded in thousandths, the currency will be expressed to the third decimal place. The most common currencies found in Forex are the U.S. dollar, the British pound sterling, the Euro, the Japanese yen, and the Australian dollar. For illustration purposes, we display below the EUR/USD time evolution over the last two years.