A word of caution

Our bottom line is still the same: we stand in a bear market and the fact that “big” days can happen does not change the fundamentals of our underlying view…

In fact, quantitatively, days with an amplitude above +3% happen about 3 times more often in bear market than in bull market: this is not a good sign for SPX over the long run! However, we have explained our view in a previous post. It makes sense at the levels of yesterday (mid-day) to enter into the stock market to catch some trains: big days can be violent in bear market… This can be a good profitable strategy that risk/reward considerations must select. In case of new plunge, we will immediately close all our postions… Right now, we let them run.

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