Let play the Game of J. Kerviel
€50 billions contracts on EUROPEAN stock indices… sold out the worst day: monday 21/01! Note that we had forseen a bottom here (at least temporary):
http://safe-trading.blogspot.com/2008/01/cac40_21.html
==> loss of €5 billions (-10%) on the position of J.K. (as said by S.G.).
As we had anticipated, between 21/01 && 25/01, major indices has raised by ~10%. This would have given a neutral exit point on the position… hum! Making decision on the market is really really hard: do not act too quickly, get the maximum informations from different sources… Bad luck, whatever the ways this position was built on, only the panic and a wrong analysis on 21/01 lead to a terrible loss.
An advise for the future for top managers @ S.G.: read us and digest our information into your own processes!